T20 WORLD CUP PREVIEW
And why this tournament in Australia could be historic
Constant evolution is the nature of the beast in T20 cricket, unlike how it is with the other two formats. For example, that ridiculous rule that gave England four extra runs after the ball deflected off Ben Stokes in the 2019 ODI World Cup has still not been changed. Meanwhile, this remains the only sport in the world where a bowler following the rules of the sport to prevent a non-striker from taking undue advantage runs the risk of being reviled by a large section of the sport’s voices. Just because that was a part of the game’s pre-war traditions once, and the ability to to adjust the mind to present time has not been one of the strong suits of this sport.
All of these, and a lot more (an absurd fetishisation of tally landmarks, for example), make cricket the lowest IQ major sport in the world. The T20 format, however, has forced a more measured way of thinking, that is having an overall positive impact on all formats. Concepts like match-ups (correlating bowlers against batsmen), evaluating patterns and devising specialist roles (like death bowling or finishers) and a lot else — has brought a more scientific approach to the sport than ever before.
One of the emerging ideas in this is the absolute devaluing of wickets in this format, in tandem with far greater risk-taking. Since only 120 balls are in play in an innings, there is no point having explosive batsmen in the team if they don’t get enough balls to express themselves. So, the idea of anchoring a T20 innings is now getting extinct, or should, given the evidence that suggests that is the best way to go. Sri Lanka demonstrated it brilliantly, on their way to winning the Asia Cup in the UAE recently.
West Indies was the best-placed team in the last T20 WC (in the UAE) to play like that, given the once-in-a-generation array of hitters they had in their last squad. But they chose to play conservatively, ostensibly, and were decimated for not playing to their real strengths.
There are really just 3 teams in the world that have embraced this mindset wholeheartedly — England (from before), Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Australia and South Africa have shown glimpses of playing this way, but they would have to make changes to their current squad somehow, to really get there. But all the other teams are still playing catch-up, and thus decrease their chances of going the distance. Especially in Australian conditions, where fast outfields nicely complement good timing.
The overwhelming favourites for this tournament, for bookmakers and experts alike, are Australia, England and India. No one dares to pick a winner from outside this trio. Australia are defending champions playing in front of home crowds. England have the consistent results to show for their truly modern approach. India have the largest selection of world-class players by virtue of being the biggest cricket nation by a distance (and the top-ranked T20 team in the world, based on recent accumulated results). New Zealand, South Africa and Pakistan are next in the pecking order to provide any kind of serious challenge. But there are flaws in these expectations, based on approach. For starters, in this rapidly changing landscape, Sri Lanka does not figure in anyone’s calculation.
The groupings are lopsided unfortunately, which ultimately will dictate a lot. The three most positive teams in the world currently are all in Group 1- England, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka (almost certainly will be a topper in its qualifying group). They have Australia and New Zealand to combat — which makes it all very exciting. Meanwhile, Group 2, which has India, Pakistan, South Africa, Bangladesh and West Indies (who will top its qualifying group), is really a three-horse race, which makes it a considerably easier group to be in. And yet, there could be one big upset in that.
A team-by-team breakdown suggests the following:
INDIA are lucky to be in a group where they will essentially face two big challenges — Pakistan and South Africa (West Indies and Bangladesh should not pose too much trouble, and if they do, it is a measure of how much the Indian team is underperforming.) So, if India win any one of those two matches (against PAK or SA), they’re almost certainly assured a place in the semis. But the reverse is also true — if they lose either of those two matches (India plays South Africa at Perth, where the extra bounce should definitely give South Africa an advantage), they could struggle to get into the semis, which means both those games pretty much have the edge of a quarter-final. It doesn’t help that India’s very first match is against Pakistan — probably the best bowling side in the tournament in these conditions, if in top form. And India’s top-order batting is their biggest weakness, as per recent evidence.
Virat Kohli is a spent force in T20 cricket — he can produce supporting acts, but he cannot win a game with the bat solo anymore. All the other batsmen in the team, literally every batsman up to №7 can (and this is required in the modern T20 era). At №3, with his iffy strike rate, Kohli slows the pace down for the other batsmen to follow. Moreover, opener KL Rahul, for all his undeniable talent, has a tendency to value his wicket much more than he should in this format, in at least 3 of 4 matches he plays; he also has not been a big match player in T20s (as mentioned, even India’s group matches against Pakistan and South Africa will be big games). Together, as two of the top 3 batsmen in the batting order, this is India’s greatest weakness, not only because they may slow things down with the bat, but also play a big role in forming the ethos, the spirit of the side — the star player and the vice captain among them, after all. (Which is why there can be a strong case that Kohli’s absence from the Indian team that made history in Australia in 2020/21 was not a coincidence, though for different reasons). It is absurd that the world’s best T20 batsman today, Suryakumar Yadav, is actually playing in the fourth-best batting position in his team. India’s greatest hope in this tournament is that Yadav and Pandya are given enough space to express themselves, as the real force behind this Indian team, since Pant has not been allowed to be the X-factor by opening (like the wide-berth opportunity Cameron Green got, for example). The openers can be an X-factor in one match out of four perhaps, which is not enough, as they rely on the next few batsmen, including Karthik as a finisher, to get past strong opposition.
Moreover, with Bumrah injured, there is pressure on India’s bowling. Shami, even if he is fit and selected, is not consistent in this format — not very good with combatting counterattacks. All of this could still fall into place with greater commitment, focus and discipline (as it would also reflect on the fielding) but a side that transparently values seniority over talent or suitability would always find it harder to accomplish those qualities consistently. Just like Dhoni’s presence in the wrong batting position played a big role in India’s demise in the 2019 ODI World Cup, Kohli’s presence is likely to do the same here. India will need luck to reach the semifinals, despite being in the easier group, which should temper expectations from all Indian fans. In all probability, disaster awaits this team, self-inflicted and tragically predictable.
AUSTRALIA, defending champions and host, have a serious test to overcome — of finding a way to get Cameron Green in. Whether it is at the cost of white elephant Steve Smith or a relatively out-of-form Aaron Finch, most probably the former — that’s a tough call they have to take (and call it an injury). If they do not do this, they run the risk of being found out in the old-school universe — which wouldn’t really be the Australian way. The nagging doubt that they do not have their best possible side is a killer in this format, even with Warner — arguably the greatest T20 batsman ever — in such ominous form, if the opposition plays the modern way.
ENGLAND are a top-class side, with a top-class attitude. Fitness issues have kept some key members out, and it will be interesting to see the energy that the sum of their parts can muster up. If Buttler and Stokes get into their groove quickly and with consistency, a team that additionally has the likes of Phil Salt (or Alex Hales, bristling with intent, given how he has been kept out of international cricket in recent times) and Harry Brook to complement Livingstone and Moeen Ali, is too fearsome — that can go bang-bang without wasting bullets. If Wood and Jordan are fit, and the rest of their bowlers can be as disciplined as if they’re forming a queue in London, they should be the team to beat. Certainly the favourites to win this tournament, however much Buttler downplays that.
SOUTH AFRICA are a very formidable side in Australian conditions, and this might just be their hour. But they absolutely have to find a way of replacing their white elephant — the badly out-of-form captain Temba Bavuma (who anyway looked out of sorts in this format even in the last World Cup in UAE). They have to get Reeza Hendricks in for him, who has been in very good form. If they do not do that, they run the same risk that India and Australia are running. If their debilitating quota politics prevails, this team will not advance — it is as simple as that. But there is talk that Miller is set to receive the captaincy, so one can only hope for their sake.
PAKISTAN have much the same problem as India but also the opposite. Their openers — Rizwan and Azam are actually their best batsmen by a distance, but both can have strike rate issues at times, especially Azam. Also, if both batsmen get out cheaply, the team invariably struggles. The solution to both issues is perhaps Azam batting at №4 and controlling the innings, a job much better done from that position. And giving the licence to kill to the likes of Zaman or Sharjeel at the top. If they do not do this, they will neutralise the advantage they have of possessing the most potent bowling attack for Australian conditions (Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf…wheeeee). They need to manifest injury issues too, and get these two, or at least one of them in. Or, use a more aggressive batsman in the current squad (like Shadab or Nawaz) and send him up the order with that license to drill.
NEW ZEALAND are not as formidable as before. They have been on the decline noticeably, especially with Williamson still not back in top form after his elbow injury, and Conway having fallen behind a bit. But they have enough firepower and discipline to cause a few serious dents. Their Group is also the tougher one — comprising Australia, England, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka as well. Any team can beat the other on a given day. For a team like New Zealand, that may not be that much of an advantage this time as they are more likely to be a spoiler than an overall beneficiary. They could well play kingmaker in Group A, but probably not beyond that.
AFGHANISTAN can be a handful for any of these teams, given their positive approach. If they play fearlessly right through, they could produce an upset or two, but to go beyond that requires the sort of firepower, skill (in Australian conditions), experience and leadership they probably do not have. They should play with fire and intent, which does not drop at any stage, if they want to make an impression, as they should be desperate to do.
WEST INDIES are not a patch on the side that swaggered on T20 pitches in past tournaments. Now, with the bizarre development of Hetmayer missing the World Cup because he missed a couple of flights from the US (for “personal reasons”), this further weakening could be the sort of debilitating blow that renders their cause hopeless. There isn’t much expected from them and they could use this desperation to play out of their skins, which could be dangerous enough to at least dent one of the major sides in their group on a given day. Whether they have the leadership to sustain that fire is another matter though.
BANGLADESH haven’t won a single match against a major side in T20Is for over a year — this is one of their worst phases, inexplicable, given the talent they have. This is actually further proof of how much of a mental sport the T20 format is, and how significant fearlessness and positivity is. Unfortunately, a tentative approach leading to meltdowns in the face of big challenges has been Bangladesh’s Achilles Heel for a long time. Add the conditions in Australia to that, and this is probably their national team with the lowest expectations in a decade or so. Such a dismal outlook is actually a great place to start from for a revival; hopefully their team can come together and provide at least one major upset.
SRI LANKA are the most interesting team in this tournament. The way they played in the Asia Cup after being humiliated in the first game by Afghanistan was a sight to behold. They embody the modern T20 approach more than anyone else in the world today (except England), of positivity and risk-taking, and have the firepower, experience, skill and leadership to go far. Since they have to qualify with lesser teams first (before the main tournament begins), there is time for them to get a good sense of conditions before the tougher challenges come. It is their bad luck to be in the tougher group, but then again, the advantage of that is that other teams can dent the two semifinal favourites as well (England and Australia, in this case) and they can get the advantage of the percentages. Despite the Asia Cup triumph, Sri Lanka are unfancied in this World Cup, both as per the ICC rankings and the bookmakers. It should take all pressure off them and enable them to play freely and bravely. They would be a serious handful if they do that, truly the dark horse of this tournament.
Given the current scenarios, logic suggests England, Australia and South Africa will make the semifinals. The fourth spot is likely to be between Pakistan and India — which makes their group encounter on 23rd October doubly important. It could depend on who plays less old-school cricket and takes the bull by the horns.
The adjustment Pakistan have to make to increase their chances (of Babar Azam going down) is a small one. If they get their aggression quotient right, which is highly achievable, they could be a side hard to stop. The 1992 Pakistani side had several batting issues (and bowling ones too) with Inzamam a completely unknown quantity then (that many vociferously criticised the inclusion of, and passed off as Imran’s favouritism, including Miandad) and yet, they prevailed because of how Imran held the team together and tweaked it for best results. Like how he himself went up the order then, Azam has to go down now. If they do this, Pakistan could certainly top India in the semifinal stakes. India, on the other hand, will hope their openers give a good start (with Rahul having one of his more aggressive days) with Suryakumar and Pandya coming into the game enough.
Meanwhile, if Australia do not get in Cameron Green (keeping Smith in), and lose even one of their first two games (they play New Zealand, Sri Lanka and England in their first three games), they could struggle much the way Australia’s World Cup-defending 1992 side did too, in front of home crowds under the pressure of too much expectation (that this team may be even more susceptible to than Border’s 1992 side). This is a very real possibility that those opposition teams should be mindful of and therefore not be intimidated by them. Sri Lanka should be looking to pounce on the home team particularly, and take the game to them. If they can find the skill to keep their quintessential momentum going in the face of all the extra bounce in those conditions (they showed that somewhat during their tour earlier this year, and they’re a much more realised side now), we could be in for some very exciting moments.
One oddity that is gradually emerging in this new approach is the skew towards chasing teams — they seem to have a clear advantage amidst all this positivity, regardless of conditions. Making 200+ is the only way to neutralise this somewhat, which is obviously not at all an easy thing to do regularly, and certainly not without being positive in an all-out way.
However, all said and done, unless some team plays out of their skin unexpectedly (as Australia did in the 2021 knockouts), it will be hard to stop England. It would be most fascinating to see Sri Lanka do it though, against the odds. If they can even reach the final, the case to be made for positivity over all else in the T20 format will be made for posterity. That would be truly something to look forward to.
Jaideep Varma
10th October, 2022